What if the loudest voices in politics aren't actually the ones that matter? On this episode of The BOBcast, Bob Riney sits down with Richard Czuba, founder of The Glengariff Group and one of Michigan's most respected nonpartisan pollsters, for a candid conversation recorded live at the Mackinac Policy Conference. Richard pulls back the curtain on how genuine, unbiased research has shaped some of Michigan's most consequential policy decisions -- from gun safety laws passed after the Michigan State shooting to the data driving today's affordability crisis -- while exposing the gap between what social media amplifies and what voters actually think. It's a sobering, clarifying look at how Michigan can find common ground in an era defined by division, told by the man whose data has quietly guided the conversation for over four decades.
What if the loudest voices in politics aren't actually the ones that matter? On this episode of The BOBcast, Bob Riney sits down with Richard Czuba, founder of The Glengariff Group and one of Michigan's most respected nonpartisan pollsters, for a candid conversation recorded live at the Mackinac Policy Conference. Richard pulls back the curtain on how genuine, unbiased research has shaped some of Michigan's most consequential policy decisions -- from gun safety laws passed after the Michigan State shooting to the data driving today's affordability crisis -- while exposing the gap between what social media amplifies and what voters actually think. It's a sobering, clarifying look at how Michigan can find common ground in an era defined by division, told by the man whose data has quietly guided the conversation for over four decades.
Time Stamps
Richard Czuba's Role in Michigan Politics
:20- Bob Riney introduces Richard Czuba, highlighting his influence on Michigan's political landscape and his nonpartisan approach.
:58- Bob discusses Richard’s role in shaping significant ballot proposals, including the Michigan stem cell ballot proposal in 2008 and the personal property tax reform proposal in 2014.
1:55- Richard emphasizes the importance of listening to all voices and delivering accurate research, not partisan opinions.
Independence in Polling
2:17- Richard Czuba explains how he ensures his independence in polling by delivering both good and bad news to clients.
2:58- He discusses the importance of understanding the full spectrum of voter opinions, not just whether they support or oppose an issue.
3:40- Bob and Richard discuss the role of social media in shaping public opinion, particularly on issues like data centers.
4:18- Richard highlights the need to address the specific concerns of voters, such as higher electricity bills and water use, to open a conversation.
Impact of Independent Research
5:05- Richard Czuba shares an example of how independent research helped drive gun safety legislation in Michigan after the Michigan State University shooting.
5:21- He explains how his survey on gun safety issues influenced the state legislature to pass three gun protection laws.
6:11- Bob and Richard discuss the importance of objective polling in a divisive political climate.
7:03- Richard emphasizes the need for voters to make decisions based on their concerns, not polling results, and the importance of transparency in polling data.
Challenges in Policy and Polling
8:01- Richard reflects on his experience as an advisor to Michigan's governor, highlighting the challenges and successes of policy-making.
8:28- He discusses the importance of understanding how policy is shaped and the role of successful leaders like John Engler and Gretchen Whitmer.
8:42- Bob and Richard discuss the impact of social media on political campaigns and the need for critical thinking skills.
8:57- Richard emphasizes the importance of seeing both sides of the conversation in media and the challenges of siloed information.
Affordability Crisis in Michigan
11:03- Richard identifies affordability as a major concern for Michigan voters, affecting food prices, gas prices, and home operating costs.
11:29- He explains the connection between the affordability crisis and declining per capita income in Michigan.
12:09- Richard advises political leaders to focus on solutions rather than blaming parties for the current state of affairs.
Voter Turnout and Political Engagement
13:33- Richard discusses the factors influencing voter turnout, particularly anger and dissatisfaction with the current administration.
14:04- He highlights the unusual turnout patterns seen in recent elections, such as the special election in Senate District 35.
Richard Czuba 0:00
One of the questions I would ask every candidate running for office is, who do you speak with on the other side of the aisle? Who exactly are you talking with to try and breach this divide, to try and find some common ground?
Bob Riney 0:14
Welcome back to The BOBcast. I'm your host, Bob Riney, President and CEO of Henry Ford Health. Today's guest is someone whose influence has quietly shaped Michigan's political landscape for decades, and you'll probably recognize him from your TV. Richard Czuba is one of the most respected and insightful pollsters in our state. For more than 40 years, he's been helping leaders, organizations, and communities understand what voters are really thinking, not through partisanship, but through data, discipline, and a deep respect for the public voice. He founded the The Glengariff Group in 1998 and his work has guided conversations across Michigan ever since. Behind the scenes, he's played a pivotal role in shaping two of the most consequential ballot proposals in recent memory, the Michigan stem cell ballot proposal in 2008 and the personal property tax reform proposal in 2014 His nonpartisan approach has earned him a reputation for bringing parties together, which is the perfect fit for the Quest for Common Ground theme at this year's Mackinac Policy Conference, where we're recording today's episode. Richard, thanks so much for joining me on The BOBcast.
Richard Czuba 1:32
Pleasure to be here.
Bob Riney 1:34
You know, I had a chance to hear you in several meetings, both this year and in previous years, in addition to obviously watching you on TV, but I want to start with the ballots. How does it feel to you personally to know that your imprint is very prominent in shaping those proposals and seeing them come through?
Richard Czuba 1:55
The way I see it is I do nothing but translate what the voters think. Part of the conversation that's always lacking is where are the voters in any particular conversation. I view that as my job.
Bob Riney 2:09
Tell us a little bit about your process and just how you go about achieving that very connection in an objective way.
Richard Czuba 2:17
When I started this, everybody said, well, you have to be a Republican or you have to be a Democrat, and I said, "No, I don't want to be either. I want to be in the middle. I want to hear every voice. And I always say that good research is not partisan. Good research is accurate. That's what we try to do continuously to all the conversations we're part of. You need to talk to all sides, and that's what we've tried to do, is bring research to all sides.
Bob Riney 2:46
In this era where so much polling is partisan by nature, how do you make sure that your independence is both known and stands out?
Richard Czuba 2:58
I deliver bad news a lot of times, and it's not always fun, but it's part of the job, and I want to make sure that people I work with, people I talk to, understand the upsides, the downsides, the full spectrum of where voters are. If they're not with you, why aren't they with you? Data centers is a perfect example.
News segment 3:20
New today, residents are pushing back against the rapid growth of data centers for AI across the US amid growing concerns about the environmental impacts on communities. So, you can see the sediment from the data center. Wow, and that's just from the water coming out of your faucet. Yeah, and this is what's in...
Richard Czuba 3:40
It's not enough to say voters aren't supportive data centers. It's what's holding them back. What are the issues that come to play that happens in virtually every issue you talk about? It's never enough to say they support or oppose. You have to have an answer for why do they support or why do they oppose.
Bob Riney 4:00
The energy centers, just to stay on that for a minute, is such a great example, because the pro and con crowds for that just emerged so quickly.
Richard Czuba 4:12
Data centers is one of those issues that, frankly, is being driven by social media, right now.
Bob Riney 4:17
Yes, it is.
Richard Czuba 4:18
It is this local word of mouth thing, but we've done a lot of work on data centers, and while people are genuinely initially opposed to it, they are opposed because of the risks they view they pose to themselves, higher electricity bills, water use, and one of the things we found was if you simply talk to them about protections and what protections can be put in place suddenly that opens a conversation because it deals with the issues they're having.
Bob Riney 4:48
You've had the opportunity through your work to see how independent research can bring Republicans and Democrats together, perhaps at a time when they started. Further apart, any examples or stories that you might want to share.
Richard Czuba 5:05
There is one in particular: Michigan State shootings.
News report 5:09
Run! Overnight horror at Michigan State University after a gunman opened fire. Continuing our coverage of the shooting at Michigan State University that happened last night after 8o'clock, three students were killed, five others are now...
Richard Czuba 5:21
I remember Tom Izzo saying each of you has a voice and I thought you know I have a role here I have a voice so we went into the field with our own survey we paid for it ourselves and we looked at the full spectrum right and left of issues around gun safety, and we put that out there. I can honestly say that that survey helped drive the conversation in the state legislature to pass the three gun protection laws that followed the Michigan State shooting.
News report 5:54
Another one of Governor Gretchen Whitmer's top priorities of the year will soon be reality. The bill is now ordering roll for princes and presentation of the governor. The Senate signed off on creating Michigan's red flag law Wednesday. It is the third piece to a series of gun reforms Democrats pushed through after the mass shooting at Michigan State University...
Bob Riney 6:11
You know, our theme for this conference is a Quest for Common Ground, and it's so important because we are in just, you know, an incredibly divisive time. People just seem angry for the sake of being angry. They're anxious, they're sometimes not even sure exactly the source, but they're just not feeling good. As a result, you see that play out in some of the political issues, where more and more you know you have rhetoric of don't believe polling don't believe this poll it was a paid for poll it was a bought poll your research is obviously counter to all that do you feel even a greater sense of urgency to teach people about the difference between objective polling and gaming.
Richard Czuba 7:03
I absolutely do. I am constantly lecturing on how to view a poll, how to look at it, how to see if it's legitimate. When people say everyone's skeptical about polling, unlike they should be, they absolutely should look skeptically at any polls, and the first thing I say is, if you are a voter, don't pay attention to what the polls say. Make your decision based on your concerns, not what polling says. But more important, there is a lot of gaming of the system with polling. There's a lot of bad polling. I don't want to talk about other polls or other pollsters, but when we do polling, we put out the full poll, the whole shebang, the full 100 page report, so you can look at cross tabs, understand where we drew people from to see the order of the questions, which is really important. All of that is important to understanding whether a poll is legitimate.
Bob Riney 8:01
Let's switch gears for a minute. You were advisor to Michigan's governor for research and planning. Tell me, how that affected you and your profession.
Richard Czuba 8:12
It was a great view into policy. Unless you are in the arena of policy, you don't get to really understand how it's put together, how it's shaped. It is a tough place to be successful.
Bob Riney 8:28
Yeah.
Richard Czuba 6 8:28
And yet you get to see people who are people like John Engler, very successful Democratic leaders, Gretchen Whitmer, very successful, and you get to view how they do it.
Bob Riney 8:42
You know, I just heard Sununu and Tester, two different parties, two different parts of the country, both really talk about the fact that there is still a core in our elected body that really want to work together and do the right thing. It's finding them oxygen in social media and other platforms from the people that get the headlines because of their extreme views.
Speaker 7 8:42
You know, I've been doing this now for, hate to admit, 43 years in politics, and the one thing I can say is politicians come and politicians go, but during that process, you start to see the people who make the difference, the people who are genuinely interested in getting something done. Frankly, one of our problems right now is we have a lot of people running for office who want to be something versus those that want to do...
Bob Riney 8:42
Do something, absolutely.
Richard Czuba 8:42
That's what we need to look for in our elected leaders, and a lot of it is played out on social media.
Bob Riney 8:42
Right.
Richard Czuba 8 8:57
There is a whole group of political activists, operatives who think campaigns are won and lost on Twitter. We did a survey last year, we asked voters what kind of social media they use, and on Twitter, only 18% of the state wasn't even on Twitter, and when we said, How often do you use it? Only 3% of the voters in Michigan said they use Twitter a lot, and yet there are operatives thinking that's where campaigns are won and lost.
Bob Riney 10:15
Technology and digital connectivity is going to continue to march on, but we got to do a better job in our academic centers of teaching critical thinking skills, because everyone's going to need them to sort through the amount of information and the repetitiveness of the information that comes through all their echo chambers.
Richard Czuba 10:34
I'm dating myself, but it used to be a campaign, you would see both sides of the conversation, you turn on your local news, you turn on Wheel of Fortune or Jeopardy, and you'd see both sides of commercials. You don't see that anymore, because we're so siloed into specific media, we're missing the other half of the conversation.
Bob Riney 10:57
What do you think are the biggest things that Michigan voters are looking for as we head into the gubernatorial election?
Richard Czuba 11:03
Well, first and foremost, and I don't think this is going to shock anybody, is there is a huge affordability crisis in Michigan. We see this in every poll we do, and we do it in open-ended questions. It's food prices, it's gas prices, it's a cost of operating your home. This is an enormous concern, and one of the things that we're not connecting with the affordability crisis in Michigan is the reality that our per capita income is plummeting in Michigan also, and those two things have got to be tied together for the voters. Part of the reason you're having such an affordability crisis is because education levels are low in Michigan, and the jobs that pay more are not coming to Michigan right now as a result.
Bob Riney 11:53
And you know that's been a common theme of the conversation on the island here, because everything that you just described is reversible, we have seen it in other states. We've seen it with ourselves, so we know that this does not have to be a continued decline.
Richard Czuba 12:09
One piece of advice I'd have for everybody in this conversation is a political leader says, oh, this is due to that party, the other party, or this has happened over the last six years or eight years, ignore them. This has happened over the past quarter century, and both parties have been had power.
Bob Riney 12:29
We've been really hammering home this last few days that this is not a Democratic issue or Republican issue, it's a Michigan issue, and we have to embrace that. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't pay attention and decide which party you're supporting, but we all write checks, some small, some large, and I'm not writing checks to anyone that's just here to tell me what the other party or the other individual didn't do. I want to hear what your solutions are and what you're willing to compromise on in order to get things done, and that's my two question test.
Richard Czuba 13:06
You know, one of the questions I would ask every candidate running for office is, Who do you speak with on the other side of the aisle? Who exactly are you talking with to try and breach this divide, to try and find some common ground?
Bob Riney 13:21
As we wind down here, I would really be interested in what you see in polling, or you see in relation to key issues that affects voter turnout.
Richard Czuba 13:33
Voters turn out most when they're angry, and that's not a good thing for this country. If everything's going hunky dory, voters aren't enthused, but right now we're in a situation where we have, we are going to see, I think, a massive turnout on the Democratic and independent side in reaction to what they're seeing in the administration in Washington. Typically, midterms are a referendum on the incumbent presidency, they don't typically do well, but we're seeing something unusual right now. We saw it in Senate District 35 up in the Tri Cities region, the special election. This was a seat that I expected, frankly, Democrats to win by about 10 points. They won by 20. That startled me, and it showed the pattern of what's been happening across the country is going to happen here in Michigan.
Bob Riney 14:23
One would argue that the kind of work you do is nerd-like, it's data, but your ability to capture it and put it into an articulated approach that really relates to people, to me, is what makes you really special, because it's not just the data, it's how you take that data and tell it through the lens of a storyteller in a way that people want to hear about it, they want to understand it, and they relate to it. Thank you so much for being on The BOBcast.
Richard Czuba 14:52
Thank you.